Wrocław Report


Report on the opening of schools in Berlin

If the contacts of 15-18 year olds in the school are reduced to 18 percent, about 7800 Berliners will be infected within 300 days, and 156 will die in total. To subtract from this number, there are about 5500 infected and 128 dead, which would also happen without the schools closing. If, however, in this age range, i.e. 8 instead of 10 contacts, contacts are reduced to 80 percent, almost thirty times more Berliners, about 200,000, will be infected and about 3,000 people will die. Even half the contacts of high school students (48 percent) will still lead to about 2700 dead and 185,000 infected people. The opening of schools and public life is in our opinion premature at this stage.


Case study on opening MSU-IIT

The simulations indicate that the opening of MSU-IIT can lead to a super-spreading event, if not combined with strict hygiene and social distancing measures, which reduce the number of secondary infections. It is too expect that the contact rate for students at MSU-IIT is higher than in the rest of the population due to teaching in classrooms and laboratories. Even an augmented immunity does not prevent from a massive outbreak. The more the immunity is built up the less intensive is the increased disease spread from MSU-IIT into the city. We strongly suggest to monitor the progression of COVID-19 during the weakening of the lockdown after April 30, 2020 before opening MSU-IIT. In addition we recommend to take strong social distancing and hygiene measures to milder the disease spread.


Report on the opening of schools in Rhineland-Palatinate

Microsimulations for Rhineland-Palatinate on the basis of our model give strong indications that the opening of schools together with relaxed contact reduction can only be safely carried out with very high resistance. The opening of schools for individual classes is possible with strong hygiene and social distance if the rest of the population also follows a very strong contact reduction and a significant immunization is ensured. Opening schools and public life is in our opinion premature at this stage.


Situation in Illigan City, Phillipines

In different media there is an ongoing debate about weakening the social distancing measures. In this techreport we show for the example of the city of Iligan, Philippines, that, in order not to exceed the capacity of the health system, it it crucial to reduce the outer household contacts. Moreover a mitigation strategy is not recommendable, since the social distancing can not be tuned fine enough. We also simulate how massive testing combined with household contacts can be used in addition to social distancing measures.