Recommended Strategy

In the current phase, the epidemic is characterized by a constant number of new infections in a fixed unit of time (e.g. during the week) - this is the so-called endemic state. The goal of all should be to bring the epidemic to an end as soon as possible by reducing the opportunities for new infections. This is not only possible, but also much more cost-effective economically and socially than prolonging the duration of the threat.

Detect

The authorities should carry out extensive testing for the presence of the virus, with the aim of increasing the detectability of infections in persons with asymptomatic or mild symptoms.

Backtrack

Epidemiological services should quickly and effectively monitor the contacts of infected persons. Citizens should use the contact tracing application, as at least half of the population needs to use it to be an effective tool to reduce the epidemic.

Reduce

To extinguish the epidemic, restrictions on social contacts must be maintained.

We can consider the epidemic to be over if we do not record new infections for 14 days. Remember that even an increase of 5 cases per day is a threat - every country that has experienced a rapid increase in infections was previously only a few cases.

TECHNICAL REPORT, 09.05.2020

COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of the current situation and short-term forecasts

The MOCOS Group has developed an advanced microsimulation model that simulates the behaviour of individual agents (individuals). It allows to assess the current level of virus reproduction and the stage of development of the epidemic, the scale of reduction of human contacts achieved, the level of detection of virus-infected people with mild symptoms and the impact of recommended actions on the possibility of reducing the development of the epidemic.

REPORT 🇵🇱
PRESS RELEASE 🇵🇱

Poland


Map of probable parameter configurations according to two scenarios for the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland on 09/05/2020. The shades of blue indicate the probable location of the parameter set for simulating the pessimistic variant, while the shades of violet indicate the optimistic variant. The C letter indicates the configurations for the parameters corresponding to the critical line.

State of the Epidemic

Modelling as of 09.05.2020 indicates that according to the pessimistic variant, the epidemic in Poland has reached the critical line, while according to the optimistic variant, the epidemic is already in the extinction phase.

Probable trajectories of the daily number diagnosed in Poland to 08/07/2020 in the optimistic variant. The black line marks the 7-day average number of diagnosed cases in Poland in the last 30 days from 09/04/2020.

Future Scenarios

The range of probable daily number of people diagnosed on 08/06/2020 is about 150 to 300, assuming that the current restrictions will not be changed and that there will be no increase in testing frequency or contact tracking efficiency, according to the model without contact tracking module.

Lower Silesia


Map of probable parameter configurations according to two scenarios for the COVID-19 epidemic state in Lower Silesia on 09/05/2020. The shades of blue indicate the probable position of the parameter set for simulating the pessimistic variant, while the shades of violet indicate the optimistic variant. The area between the blue and violet line should be interpreted as a possible range of the epidemiological situation in Lower Silesia.

State of the Epidemic

The scope of the epidemiological situation in Lower Silesia is very close to the critical line. According to the pessimistic variant, the epidemic is still in the growth phase, while according to the optimistic variant, the epidemic is already in the extinction phase. However, the low intensity of violet (optimistic variant) indicates low reliability of this scenario.

Probable trajectories of the daily number diagnosed in Lower Silesia to 08/06/2020 in the optimistic variant. The black line marks the 7-day average of the number of diagnosed cases in Lower Silesia in the last 30 days from 09/04/2020.

Future Scenarios

Assuming that the current restrictions remain unchanged and that there is no increase in testing frequency or contact tracking efficiency, according to the model without contact tracking, the range of likely daily number of diagnoses on 08/06/2020 will be between approximately 10 and 100.

Wrocław


Map of probable parameter configurations according to the scenario with the backtracking module for the COVID-19 epidemic state in Wrocław on 09/05/2020. The detection rate for mild cases was set to q=0. The shades of blue indicate probable location of the parameter set. Yellow color indicates the configurations of parameters corresponding to the critical line (endemic state).

State of the Epidemic

The model indicates that the Wrocław epidemic is in the extinction phase near the critical line.

Probable trajectories of the daily number diagnosed in Wrocław until 08/06/2020 in the variant with the backtracking module. The black line marks the 7-day average of the number of diagnosed cases in Wrocław in the last 30 days from 09/04/2020.

Future Scenarios

Assuming that the current restrictions will remain unchanged and that the frequency of testing and effectiveness of contact tracking will not be increased, according to the model with the contact tracking module, the range of likely daily number of people diagnosed on 08/06/2020 will be from about 0 to 17. The forecast daily number of people diagnosed in Wrocław is small. Consequently, the observed fluctuations in the forecast may result from noise.

TECHNICAL REPORT & CASE STUDY

Situation in Illigan City, Phillipines

We present two modelling results concerning the state of the pandemic in the city on 7.04 and our evaluation of the effect of the decision to open Mindanao State University - Iligan Institute of Technology as of 21.04.

Case study on opening MSU-IIT

21.04.2020

The simulations indicate that the opening of MSU-IIT can lead to a super-spreading event, if not combined with strict hygiene and social distancing measures, which reduce the number of secondary infections. It is too expect that the contact rate for students at MSU-IIT is higher than in the rest of the population due to teaching in classrooms and laboratories. Even an augmented immunity does not prevent from a massive outbreak. The more the immunity is built up the less intensive is the increased disease spread from MSU-IIT into the city. We strongly suggest to monitor the progression of COVID-19 during the weakening of the lockdown after April 30, 2020 before opening MSU-IIT. In addition we recommend to take strong social distancing and hygiene measures to milder the disease spread.

READ THE MSU-IIT CASE STUDY 🇬🇧

Report

5.04.2020

In different media there is an ongoing debate about weakening the social distancing measures. In this techreport we show for the example of the city of Iligan, Philippines, that, in order not to exceed the capacity of the health system, it it crucial to reduce the outer household contacts. Moreover a mitigation strategy is not recommendable, since the social distancing can not be tuned fine enough. We also simulate how massive testing combined with household contacts can be used in addition to social distancing measures.

READ THE REPORT 🇬🇧
READ THE REPORT SUMMARY 🇬🇧

TECHNICAL REPORT

Situation in Germany

We present the results of the modelling analysis of the effects of opening schools in Berlin and Rhineland-Palatinate.

Berlin


Report on the opening of schools in Berlin

28.04.2020 Number of infected depending on the level of detection of asymptomatic cases (q) and level of contact restriction.

If the contacts of 15-18 year olds in the school are reduced to 18 percent, about 7800 Berliners will be infected within 300 days, and 156 will die in total. To subtract from this number, there are about 5500 infected and 128 dead, which would also happen without the schools closing. If, however, in this age range, i.e. 8 instead of 10 contacts, contacts are reduced to 80 percent, almost thirty times more Berliners, about 200,000, will be infected and about 3,000 people will die. Even half the contacts of high school students (48 percent) will still lead to about 2700 dead and 185,000 infected people. The opening of schools and public life is in our opinion premature at this stage.

REPORT 🇬🇧

Rhineland-Palatinate


Report on the opening of schools in Rhineland-Palatinate

20.04.2020

Microsimulations for Rhineland-Palatinate on the basis of our model give strong indications that the opening of schools together with relaxed contact reduction can only be safely carried out with very high resistance. The opening of schools for individual classes is possible with strong hygiene and social distance if the rest of the population also follows a very strong contact reduction and a significant immunization is ensured. Opening schools and public life is in our opinion premature at this stage.

PRZECZYTAJ RAPORT 🇩🇪