Changes in testing after 03/09/2020

On September 3, 2020, Health Ministry announced changes in registering infections due to adjustments to testing. They shared this announcement on twitter, that they will test only symptomatic cases. Those adjustments impacted detected cases reported after September 3, 2020, what is clearly visible below:

Fig.1. Number of new daily cases as well as 7 and 14-day rolling average of new cases from March 2, 2020 to September 10, 2020.

Forecasts of cumulative and incident COVID-19 deaths and cases in Poland in a standardized format made by MOCOS model is presented below. Forecasts were shared for the German and Polish COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

Fig.2. Forecast of cumulative deaths in 4 weeks from September 7, 2020. Upper-left corner presents point predictions of various models on October 3, 2020. MOCOS model indicates around 2444 cumulative deaths on October 3, 2020. An inner bundle represents quantiles 25%-75%, while an outer bundle represents quantiles 2.5%-97.5% from MOCOS model.
Fig.3. Forecast of weekly deaths in 4 weeks from September 7, 2020. Upper-left corner presents point predictions of various models on October 3, 2020. MOCOS model indicates around 85 weekly deaths for the week ending on October 3, 2020. An inner bundle represents quantiles 25%-75%, while an outer bundle represents quantiles 2.5%-97.5% from MOCOS model.
Fig.4. Forecast of cumulative incidents in 4 weeks from September 7, 2020. Upper-left corner presents point predictions of various models on October 3, 2020. MOCOS model indicates around 84 302 cumulative incidents on October 3, 2020. An inner bundle represents quantiles 25%-75%, while an outer bundle represents quantiles 2.5%-97.5% from MOCOS model.
Fig.5. Forecast of weekly incidents in 4 weeks from September 7, 2020. Upper-left corner presents point predictions of various models on October 3, 2020. MOCOS model indicates around 3694 weekly incidents for the week ending on October 3, 2020. An inner bundle represents quantiles 25%-75%, while an outer bundle represents quantiles 2.5%-97.5% from MOCOS model.