An upward trend

Fig.1. Number of new daily cases as well as 7 and 14-day rolling average of new cases from April 12, 2020 to August 30, 2020.

As of July 31, the 7-day mean daily increment in new cases increased from about 520 to about 730 on August 30.

If the current rate of growth does not change, then in the next month the 7-day average of daily increases in new cases will most likely increase to about 870 new cases per day (90% confidence interval for the 7-day mean is about (660, 1280)).

Fig.2. Probable trajectories of the daily number of newly diagnosed people until September 29, 2020 based on the microsimulation model. The trajectories were adjusted to the data from July 31, 2020 to August 30, 2020. The analysis assumed that the same restrictions and the same level of testing would be maintained in the future. The daily increases in new cases in Poland in the last month are marked with black dots. The black solid line marks daily increases in new cases in Poland that are additionally smoothed using a 7-day moving average. Each of the blue lines corresponds to the result of one model simulation that approximated the situation in Poland over the last month. The black dashed lines show the 5%, 50%, and 95% forecast quantiles from bottom to top. The red dashed lines show the minimum and maximum of the forecasts generated by the model, they are additionally smoothed using a 7-day moving average.